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April 23, 2026Scientific ReportsOpen Access

Widespread shift toward extreme dominated precipitation with pronounced trends in arid and mediterranean regions

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Authors

MZMasoud ZaerpourSPSimon Michael PapalexiouGTGuoqiang Tang

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Overview

This analysis reveals a global trend toward extreme precipitation dominance in arid regions, suggesting significant climate impacts.

Key Points

  • The study aims to explore the relationship between extreme precipitation and total annual precipitation across climate regions.
  • Analyzed Extreme Precipitation Fraction (EPF) using 25 CMIP6 global climate model simulations
  • Examined historical patterns and projected trends under high-emissions scenarios
  • Used a first-order relative-change decomposition to assess contributions of daily and total precipitation to EPF trends.
  • EPF values were highest in deserts, contributing over 13-15% to annual rainfall, and lowest in tropical rainforests (< 4%)
  • Projected EPF increases of +0.2 per decade observed in Mediterranean climates, with over 70% showing positive trends
  • Total annual precipitation changes dominate EPF trends in arid and Mediterranean regions, while extreme precipitation changes dominate in humid regions.

Cite This Study

Zaerpour et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69e9b62685696592c86eae29https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-47708-y
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