Spatiotemporal Analysis of Methane Emissions and Mitigation Potential in China: A Scenario-Based Study Using the Greenhouse Gas—Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies—Methane Framework

This study estimates China’s methane (CH4) emissions from 43 specific emission sources in 2020 and projects future trends through 2050 under two scenarios: Current Legislation (CLE) and Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction (MFR). The analysis utilises the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model methane framework, incorporating updated province-level activity data to capture the pronounced regional heterogeneity inherent in emission profiles and mitigation capacities. The results reveal a national CH4 budget of 1114 MtCO2e in 2020, with the energy sector (59%) and agriculture (28%) emerging as the primary contributors. A substantial technical mitigation potential is identified; by 2050, emissions could be curtailed by up to 48% relative to the CLE scenario, representing a 46% reduction from 2020 levels. The energy and waste sectors emerge as the primary contributors to this potential. Specifically, coal mining CH4 abatement constitutes 58% of the energy sector’s total reduction potential, while enhanced solid waste management accounts for 97% of the mitigation within the waste sector. Key measures include ventilation air methane (VAM) oxidation and pre-mining degasification, as well as anaerobic digestion and recovery and utilization for energy use. Owing to regional disparities in hydrothermal conditions (representing the combined influence of temperature and moisture), demographic status, economic development, the most effective mitigation strategies vary across provinces. For example, pre-mining degasification and VAM oxidation are most impactful in major coal-producing regions such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi. In contrast, anaerobic digestion, recovery and utilization, and waste incineration play a dominant role in more economically developed and densely populated provinces such as Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang. By delineating region-specific technological priorities, this study quantifies the maximum technical mitigation potential for China and offers guidance for other nations facing similar mitigation challenges.