Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Environmental Gradient Associations of Soil Salinity in Oasis Croplands of Xinjiang: A Four-Year Observational Study (2018–2021)

Soil salinization constrains the sustainability of irrigated oasis agriculture in arid regions. Using repeated post-harvest monitoring of 125 fixed cropland sites in Bachu County, southern Xinjiang, from 2018 to 2021, this study investigated the short-term spatiotemporal variability of topsoil total salt content (TSC) and pH. Descriptive statistics, one-way ANOVA with Tukey’s HSD test, Universal Kriging interpolation, class-transition analysis, hotspot recurrence, centroid migration, and principal component analysis were used to characterize temporal variation, spatial structure, and environmental gradient associations. TSC showed a mitigation–rebound sequence, decreasing to 4.88 ± 5.21 g kg−1 in 2020 and increasing to 6.90 ± 5.93 g kg−1 in 2021, whereas pH increased first and then declined. Salinity remained consistently concentrated in downstream cropland, while pH showed weaker and more year-dependent zonal differentiation. Class-transition analysis revealed marked salinity reorganization in 2021, mainly driven by conversion from lower-salinity classes to moderately and severely saline classes. Severe-salinity hotspots were temporally intermittent but spatially recurrent in the downstream zone, whereas high-pH hotspots were short-lived and mainly confined to the upstream zone. PCA further showed that TSC and pH were aligned with different environmental gradient combinations. Overall, the four-year sequence should be interpreted as short-term interannual variability rather than a robust long-term sequence. These results indicate that TSC and pH should not be treated as interchangeable indicators in oasis cropland assessment, and they provide a transferable basis for zone-specific salinity monitoring and management, with priority given to persistent downstream sink areas.