Dynamic Conflict Footprints and Land-System Transformation in Large-Scale Mining: Evidence from Las Bambas, Peru

Socio-environmental conflicts in mining regions are often examined through political, economic, or social lenses, while the role of land-system transformation remains less integrated into quantitative analysis. This study examines the co-evolution of socio-environmental conflict and territorial change in Las Bambas (Apurímac, Peru) as a socio-territorial process. Annual conflict records from the Peruvian Ombudsman’s Office (2007–2024) were combined with annual land-cover data from MapBiomas. Yearly conflict influence zones were reconstructed from reported affected communities and geographic features using buffered spatial entities and concave hull polygons. Clustering methods (K-medoids, DBSCAN, and agglomerative hierarchical clustering) and FP-Growth association rule mining were applied to 23 unique conflicts consolidated from the original records and encoded with 10 root causes. The most intense conflict phases were accompanied by measurable landscape transformations, including the emergence of mining-related land cover from 2012 onward, sustained loss of high-Andean natural vegetation, expansion of agricultural mosaics, urban growth along the Apurímac–Cusco corridor, and hydrological alterations in wetlands and headwaters. Three conflict typologies were identified, with unfulfilled company commitments emerging as the most recurrent co-occurring grievance. The dynamic polygon approach offers a replicable framework for linking conflict records with land-system change in extractive regions.