From Slump to Comeback: Psychological Determinants of Performance Decline, Burnout, and Recovery in Competitive Athletes—A Systematic Review

Background: Psychological determinants are increasingly recognized as central contributors to both performance decline and recovery in competitive sport; however, contemporary evidence integrating injury-related and non-injury performance contexts remains fragmented. Objective: This systematic review synthesized empirical evidence (2016–2025) examining psychological determinants associated with return to sport (RTS), reinjury risk, burnout, injury incidence, and performance decline among competitive athletes. Methods: Conducted in accordance with PRISMA 2020 guidelines, a systematic search of PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and SPORTDiscus identified peer-reviewed studies published between January 2016 and December 2025. Eligibility criteria were defined using a PICO framework. Prospective cohort studies, longitudinal multi-wave investigations, one randomized controlled trial, matched cohort studies, diary-based designs, and injury-related observational studies were included. Due to heterogeneity in constructs and outcomes, findings were synthesized narratively. Results: Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria, including prospective cohort studies, multi-wave longitudinal designs, one randomized controlled trial, one matched cohort study, and a diary-based investigation. Seven independent cohorts examined psychological readiness using the Anterior Cruciate Ligament—Return to Sport after Injury scale (ACL-RSI) in athletes with anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries (sample sizes ranging from n = 39 to n = 384), consistently demonstrating that higher readiness predicted successful RTS at 6–24 months, while two prospective studies reported contrasting associations with second ACL injury risk. Four longitudinal studies (n = 93–491) showed that increased burnout and controlled motivation predicted performance decline and dropout trajectories, whereas higher resilience and mental toughness reduced burnout progression. One seasonal longitudinal study (n = 21) linked elevated cognitive anxiety and mood disturbance to increased injury incidence. Conclusion: Psychological determinants operate across deterioration and restoration pathways. Psychological readiness shows the strongest predictive consistency for RTS, while burnout, motivational climate, and resilience significantly shape long-term performance sustainability and injury-related outcomes.