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The number of road accidents in Sri Lanka drastically increased over the last few decades, with high numbers of fatalities, grievous injuries, and property damage. It is important to analyse the most influential factors and root causes of the trends in road accidents. The main objective of this study is to investigate the effective and enduring factors that influence Grievous road traffic accidents in Sri Lanka from 1997 to 2017. According to the preliminary test results, the study analyses three main variables; Grievous Accidents, Operated Vehicles, and Road Length for model formulation. The study employs the Johansen Cointegration Test and Vector Error Correction Model to examine long-run relationships and short-run dynamics between the variables. The results show a positive relationship between the number of Operated Vehicles and Grievous Road Accidents in the long-run. The estimated coefficient is significant and consistent. Grievous Road Accidents are also positively related to Road Length, and the coefficient is significant and consistent. The elasticity of Road Length is very influential in the model. The study provides guidance to the relevant authorities in taking the necessary precautions by increasing awareness and concern for road safety measures to minimise the tragic consequences of road accidents in Sri Lanka.
Danthanarayana et al. (Thu,) studied this question.