Role of Organizational Support and Loneliness in Psychosocial Safety Climate–Well-Being Relationship: Insights from the Latent Change Score and Cross-Lagged Panel Models in Two Longitudinal Studies

We draw on Psychosocial Safety Climate (PSC) theory, the Job Demands–Resources (JD-R) model, and Social Identity Theory (SIT) to propose that an organization’s PSC influences employee well-being (stress and exhaustion) via the mediating mechanisms of Perceived Organizational Support (POS) and loneliness. We tested this process using a complementary two-study design with longitudinal data from Finnish university employees. Study 1 employed Latent Change Score Modeling (LCSM) on a two-wave dataset ( N = 1455) to examine the antecedents of intra-individual change. Results confirmed that initial levels of PSC significantly predicted the rate of positive change in POS, while initial POS levels predicted reductions in the rate of loneliness accumulation. Subsequently, baseline loneliness levels predicted increases in the accumulation of stress and exhaustion. Study 2 utilized a four-wave Cross-Lagged Panel Model ( N = 2266) to test the stability of this sequential mediation cascade over time. The results supported the hypothesized longitudinal sequence: PSC predicted subsequent levels of POS, which reduced loneliness, thereby alleviating stress and exhaustion. Furthermore, formal model comparisons in Study 2 revealed a critical reciprocal loss spiral, where loneliness significantly predicted future decreases in POS. These findings suggest that PSC functions as a foundational upstream factor that initiates resource gain spirals, while identifying loneliness as a self-reinforcing state that can erode support systems in the absence of intervention.