Navigating the energy transition: Are citizens' mental models aligned with national policy and policy support?

The energy transition is a complex process, involving multiple interconnected pathways. Therefore, understanding citizens' perceptions of this transition requires a systems thinking approach—one that recognises the interdependencies among these pathways and their collective role in achieving the energy transition. Mental models offer a valuable lens into such perceptions, as they capture individuals' assumptions about the causal relationships among components of the energy transition pathway. Aligning citizens' mental models with national energy transition policies is essential for cultivating public support and participation, yet this relationship remains underexplored. This study investigates how citizens' mental models of the energy transition align with national policy and how these mental models relate to perceptions of the effectiveness and priority of pathway components. Focusing on the Netherlands and Norway, we examine the centrality of 16 energy transition pathway components within citizens' mental models, comparing this with their prominence in national policy reviews and citizens' ratings of priority and effectiveness. Results show (1) strong correlations between the prominence of pathway components in mental models and their prominence in national policy reviews, and (2) moderate to strong correlations between the prominence of the pathway components in the mental models with citizens' perceived priority and effectiveness of the pathway components. These findings provide valuable insights for enhancing public engagement and support for energy transition strategies. • Presents a systems thinking approach to public perceptions of the energy transition • Explores how energy transition mental models align with national policy • Compares mental models with judged priority and effectiveness of possible pathways • Some mental model characteristics correlate strongly with energy transition policy • Mental model characteristics correlate moderately to strongly with policy support