Evolutionary game and simulation analysis of collaborative governance of sports public opinion

Amid globalization and digitalization, sports disciplines embody national competitive strength and cultural symbolism, but in the new-media context they also confront the growing complexity and high sensitivity associated with sudden public-opinion crises. Drawing on evolutionary game theory, this study develops a four-actor strategic model, including sports governing authorities, the media, sports organizations, and athletes, to elucidate how opinion salience, adverse impacts, policy-based incentives and sanctions, and multi-actor coordination shape strategy selection and evolutionary trajectories, and to validate the model through simulations.The findings indicate that (1) rising opinion salience hastens actors’ convergence on proactive strategies, whereas persistent adverse impacts can lock governance into a low-level equilibrium—or even drive evolutionary backsliding; (2) appropriately designed incentive–sanction mechanisms implemented by sports governing authorities effectively regulate media and organizational behavior and enhance the efficiency of public-opinion governance; (3) sports organizations serve as intermediaries and supporters within the governance chain and constitute a significant stabilizing force.