Cereal yield responses to input use farm management and climate change adaptation strategies in Ethiopia

The study on cereal crop production of Ethiopia-the heart of the Ethiopian economy and its food security-analyses pseudo-panel data from the Ethiopian Annual Agricultural Survey (EAGSS) from 2003–2021. Based on a dynamic panel GMM approach, the study extends the Cobb–Douglas production function to include agricultural inputs, farm management, climate adaptation, and institutional factors. It is observed that there is a high level of path dependency, with a one-percent increase in the past year’s cereal output, coupled with a 0.432 percent increase in current output. Land-cultivated, 0.499; improved seed, 0.422; urea fertiliser, 0.409, is a few recognised drivers of production, while DAP fertiliser shows an adverse elasticity effect (− 0.185). Pest control and soil conservation as farm management practises benefit productivity, while row sowing and chemical crop protection reduce it. Climate adaptation and institutional intervention through advisory services and credit are contradictory, calling for fine-tuning with the local context to effectively improve cereal productivity.