Learning from the past and planning for Nepal’s sustainable energy future: bottom-up modelling in LEAP

Nepal has announced an economy-wide net-zero emissions target by 2045. To achieve this, ambitious energy-related goals were set in the past, yet many targets remain unmet. We developed and validated a bottom-up model for Nepal (BU-NEP) using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP), quantifying energy demand, supply and emissions for scenarios from 2021 to 2050 to assess persistence of pathways beyond 2045. This study examined eight future energy scenarios for Nepal which reflected continuation of past development trends and policy sphere aligned with both domestic legislative milestones and international climate change pledges. The cases were identified through an extensive review of 53 policies from 1984 to 2022 and consultations with nine energy experts. Four demand sectors (domestic, industrial, commercial, and transportation), 20 end-uses, 11 major fuel-types and eight supply side technologies were considered in the simulation. The BU-NEP model was calibrated for 2019, validated for 2021 and 2022, and simulated from 2021 to 2050 at annual timesteps, utilizing comprehensive secondary data from multiple national and international sources. The results indicate significant potential for savings in energy consumption (up to 300 Mtoe until 2050) and emissions reduction (from 66.6 MtCO2-e in baseline to 10.5 MtCO2-e by 2050) through integrated demand and supply interventions. Modernizing the household sector by adopting cleaner energy and efficient appliances could potentially reduce energy consumption by 53% by 2050. Furthermore, energy-related emissions across all sectors could be decreased by at least 60% by 2050. Therefore, a sustainable and self-sufficient energy future of Nepal could be achieved from diversified energy mix, with hydropower playing a crucial role, while also addressing the challenges of petroleum dependence and underutilized domestic renewables, supported by agile policy measures rather than ‘bike shedding’. The findings emphasize the need for targeted sectoral strategies and strong policy frameworks to balance energy security, economic growth, and environmental sustainability. A holistic approach integrating supply-side and demand-side management, along with government-society synergy and capacity building, is crucial for long-term energy goals, which could be relevant to other developing nations as well.