HLA Evolutionary Divergence and Paediatric Disease Risk: Unveiling Genetic Associations

The HLA system plays a crucial role in immune recognition, with genetic variability influencing disease susceptibility. This study examines the association between HLA evolutionary divergence (HED) scores and paediatric haematological malignancies, aiming to determine whether locus-specific HED profiles correlate with disease risk. A cohort of 89 paediatric patients (age ≤ 20) with high-resolution HLA typing (A, B, C loci) was analysed. HED scores were categorised into eight distinct profiles (H = High, L = Low divergence). Statistical associations were assessed using Fisher's exact test and binary logistic regression to adjust for potential confounders, including age and sex. The LHH profile (low divergence at Locus A, high at B and C) emerged as a significant risk factor for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia (ALL), showing a three-fold increase in risk (OR = 3.24; p = 0.0481). Conversely, high divergence at Locus B alone showed a trend toward ALL susceptibility (OR = 2.17; p = 0.056). Multivariable regression confirmed that HED is an independent biological variable, with no significant influence from age (p = 0.689) or sex (p = 0.756). Furthermore, HED profiles significantly influenced the age at diagnosis (clinical latency); for instance, patients with the HHL profile exhibited a delayed onset compared to HHH profiles (mean age 12.47 vs. 6.58 years), suggesting that specific HED configurations may modulate the kinetics of immune evasion. These findings demonstrate that HED, particularly at the HLA-A locus, is a critical determinant of leukaemia susceptibility. The identification of the HLA-A 'bottleneck' (LHH profile) suggests a selective failure in antigen presentation, potentially leading to compromised anti-tumour surveillance. The independence of HED from standard clinical variables and its impact on disease latency highlight its potential as a robust immunogenetic biomarker for risk stratification and personalised monitoring in paediatric oncology.