Assessing Sustainability and Socio-Economic Viability in Inhabited Protected Areas: A Framework Based on the West-Estonian Archipelago Biosphere Reserve

Protected areas are increasingly expected to reconcile biodiversity conservation with socio-economic sustainability, yet operational tools for assessing local sustainability are limited. This study develops a replicable viability index as an operationalization of socio-economic sustainability at the settlement scale, focusing on the capacity of rural communities to maintain demographic balance and housing dynamics over time. The framework was applied to the West Estonian Archipelago Biosphere Reserve (WEABR), an inhabited UNESCO “Man and the Biosphere” site. Using harmonized census data from 1979 to 2021, the index combines three village-level binary indicators: population dynamics, residential construction activity, and demographic balance. Binary scoring reduces statistical volatility in small settlements and enables comparison across time. Approximately 60% of rural settlements remained viable over four decades, while highly viable settlements declined from 14% to 7%. Population stabilization increased, but ageing intensified and new construction decreased. Viability concentrates near urban centres, ports, transportation corridors, and coastal areas, while inland peripheral villages stagnate. Compared with mainland rural Estonia, WEABR shows a relatively resilient middle tier of viable settlements. The framework provides a transferable tool for monitoring settlement level socio-economic sustainability in inhabited protected areas.