Examining the effect of financial development, political stability and institutional quality on food security in BRICS regions: new insights from MMQR and machine learning analysis

This research examines the impact of financial development (FD), political stability and institutional quality on food security in BRICS countries over the period from 2000 to 2021. This study employed advanced econometric techniques, including the Westerlund cointegration test, the Method-of-Moment quantile regression (MMQR) procedure, the Driscoll-Kraay estimator and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality method. The findings of the Westerlund cointegration test report a strong and consistent cointegration connection between the variables under study. The results of the MMQR indicate that FD has a positive and significant impact on food security across all quantiles (10th to 90th percentile). This means that financial assistance plays an important role and is one of the key dimensions of food security and agricultural production. Furthermore, it is also confirmed that political stability and institutional quality positively promote food security in BRICS countries across all quantiles. Gradient Boost machine learning analysis confirms FD as the most influential determinant (32.71% gain), followed by cereal output (18.20%) and employment levels (15.90%). Economic and production factors outweighed governance aspects, with agricultural land showing the broadest influence across observations. These findings are verified by D-K and GLS methods. Hence, the study suggests that increasing financial assistance, strengthening political stability and enhancing institutional quality through effective policy measures are essential. These actions will enhance food production and efficiency, contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal of zero hunger.