Climate risk and maize productivity: structural pathways and gendered adaptation strategies

Introduction Climate change is increasingly undermining maize production in Ghana, a critical pillar of rural livelihoods and national food security. Prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, heat stress, and flooding disrupt traditional farming practices and contribute to declining yields, particularly in ecologically vulnerable zones. Methods This study draws on survey data from 149 maize farmers across three communities in the Atwima Nwabiagya South Municipality, located within the semi-deciduous forest zone of the Ashanti Region. Data were analysed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) to examine the effects of climate risk on productivity and the mediating role of agroecological practices. Results Climate risk exerted a significant negative effect on maize productivity, accounting for a 51.5% decline in effective pest and disease management and a 55.2% reduction in adaptive cropping systems. Five agroecological practices, namely tillage, fertilisation, cropping systems, pest and disease management, and water management, were tested as mediators. Both direct and indirect pathways indicate that unmanaged climatic variability constrains output. However, targeted interventions can mitigate these impacts. Improved water management emerged as particularly significant, converting climate risk into a modest productivity gain of 14.4%. Gender-disaggregated analysis revealed that this positive water–productivity relationship is stronger among women farmers. Discussion The findings highlight the critical role of climate-smart agriculture in buffering productivity losses under climate variability. Specifically, investments in irrigation, mulching, and moisture-conserving techniques offer viable pathways for enhancing resilience. The stronger adaptive gains observed among women farmers point to the need for gender-responsive extension services. Overall, the study provides evidence-based guidance for policy, advocating the integration of resilient water management and diversified agroecological practices to sustain Ghana’s maize systems under intensifying climate pressures.