Shaping beliefs without changing votes: transformative and causative social media influence in post-crisis Greece

This exploratory cross-sectional survey study examines the relationship between social media use and political engagement among digitally-active Greeks aged 18–39 ( N = 310). Drawing on a convenience sample collected in late 2022–early 2023, we propose a conceptual distinction between “transformative” influence (social media's capacity to shape political beliefs and opinions) and “causative” influence (its capacity to directly determine voting decisions). Aggregate-level analysis reveals that transformative influence (normalized score: 50.5/100) significantly exceeds causative influence (29.2/100), yielding a 21.3-point “influence-action gap” ( p < 0.001). At the sample level, a central finding is the emergence of a “skepticism paradox”: while 62.1% of respondents view social media content as problematic or mixed, 72.8% acknowledge its persuasive power. This pattern is consistent with confirmation bias dynamics, as 49.3% prioritize content aligning with existing views, effectively filtering social media's role toward reinforcement rather than electoral conversion. Notably, all three causative indicators converge within a narrow range (26.9%−30.2%), demonstrating robust consistency across different question framings. The study suggests that for digitally-engaged Greek youth, social media functions as a space for political discourse and identity expression that operates alongside, rather than as a direct pathway to, electoral participation. We conclude with practical recommendations while acknowledging the significant methodological limitations inherent in convenience sampling and aggregated data analysis. The study's primary contribution to political communication research lies in introducing the transformative-causative distinction as an analytical framework and providing preliminary quantitative evidence from an underrepresented Southern European context.