Land Use/Cover Change as a major driver of ecosystem services values variation in the Indigenous Agroforestry systems of North-Eastern Mountains, Tanzania

• LULC changes caused significant ESV losses in indigenous agroforestry systems • ESV trends varied markedly across mountainous landscapes • Agroforestry decline reduced key regulating and provisioning services • ESV estimated using the benefit transfer method with spatial analysis • Recorded ESV losses call for targeted landscape restoration and sustainable land management Understanding the dynamics of Land Use/Cover (LULC) in tropical mountainous areas dominated by multilayer indigenous agroforestry systems is essential for planners, policymakers, and decision-makers in maintaining and improving ecosystem services. This study investigated the historical changes in LULC that have occurred in the area between 1984 and 2022—a 38-year period due to the interplay between political-socio-economic shifts, and environmental stressors and examined their impact on Ecosystem Services Values (ESV) within the context of agroforestry systems. The study focused on four indigenous agroforestry systems (Kihamba, Ginger, Miraba and Mixed spices), mainly practised by smallholder farmers, who rely on these systems for their livelihoods and conservation purposes. A combined approach of geospatial technology, cross-sectional field investigations, and the ESV model was deployed in this study. The study utilised historical satellite imagery, machine learning and change detection algorithms to examine the LULC changes in the study area. The ESV dynamics due to LULC changes were subsequently calculated using the Benefit Transfer Method (BTM). The study findings revealed that from 1984 to 2022, Kihamba and Ginger cover areas decreased by 349.11 ha and 872.64 ha, corresponding to ESV losses of approximately USD 0.21 million and USD 0.53 million, respectively, during the same period. In contrast, Miraba and Mixed spices demonstrated positive trends for both cover and ESV. This is an alarming signal that calls for closer attention to agroforestry ecosystem restoration (i.e., recovery of tree cover, soil fertility, and habitat functions) and rehabilitation (i.e., management-based improvement of degraded agroforestry systems) in relation to agroecological goals such as food production, livelihood security, and ecosystem service sustainability. The study recommends specific policy interventions to balance agroforestry restoration with socio-economic development and calls for a framework to minimise the negative impact of LULC dynamics and create a balance between the development and socio-ecological restoration of these vital indigenous agroforestry systems.