The impact of land use and land cover change on ecosystem service values in the Ruvu Basin, Tanzania

Ecosystem services play a fundamental role in sustaining human well-being; however, their capacity is increasingly constrained by accelerating land use and land cover (LULC) transformations. This study assessed the long-term spatiotemporal impact of LULC changes and associated ecosystem service values (ESVs) changes in Tanzania’s Ruvu Basin over 30 years (1994–2024). Multi-temporal satellite imagery and machine-learning-based classification were integrated with a globally established benefit-transfer valuation framework to quantify ecosystem service changes. The results reveal substantial LULC transitions, characterized by a rapid increase of built-up areas by 456% at an annual average rate of 5.89% yr -1 and cropland by 193% at 3.65% yr -1 . Conversely, forest, wetland, and grassland ecosystems experienced pronounced contractions. As a consequence, total ESV declined by 44.6% (US$ 1,285.46 million), decreasing from US$ 2,882.89 million in 1994 to US$ 1,597.43 million in 2024. High-value ecosystems, particularly forests, water bodies, and vegetated landscapes, were progressively converted into agricultural and urban land uses. Water-related ecosystems accounted for the largest share of total ESV throughout the study period. Elasticity analysis indicates that a 1% change in LULC resulted in an average 0.78% change in total ESV, highlighting the strong sensitivity of ecosystem service provision to land-system alterations. These findings highlight the need for integrated land use planning, ecosystem-based management strategies, and sustainability-oriented policies to support water security, enhance climate resilience, and support sustainable development in the Ruvu Basin and comparable river Basins across sub-Saharan Africa.