Three Architectures, Three Outcomes: A Scenario Analysis of Digital Twin Strategies for Swedish Industrial Resilience Under Armed Conflict

Nicolas Waern

doi:10.5281/zenodo.19772315

April 25, 2026Open Access

Three Architectures, Three Outcomes: A Scenario Analysis of Digital Twin Strategies for Swedish Industrial Resilience Under Armed Conflict

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Key Points

This research aims to analyze the impact of different digital twin strategies on Swedish industrial resilience during armed conflict.
Developed three counterfactual scenarios: no-digitization, US cloud-dependent, and edge-native sovereign architectures.
Examined sectors including manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics.
Applied SECI knowledge conversion, absorptive capacity theory, and CLOUD Act jurisdictional analysis.
Identified varying levels of resilience across the three architectures under simulated conflict conditions.
Demonstrated that edge-native strategies enhance operational continuity more effectively than cloud-dependent approaches.
Revealed significant implications for policy and technology implementation in industrial sectors.

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Implication

Scenario analysis explores how digital twin strategies affect industrial resilience in Sweden, suggesting pathways for improvement.

Abstract

Develops three counterfactual scenarios examining how different digital twin deployment strategies affect Swedish industrial resilience under a 2029 Baltic conflict. Compares no-digitization, US cloud-dependent, and edge-native sovereign architectures across manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics. Applies SECI knowledge conversion, absorptive capacity theory, and CLOUD Act jurisdictional analysis.

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Nicolas Waern (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69eefd9bfede9185760d4490 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19772315

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Three Architectures, Three Outcomes: A Scenario Analysis of Digital Twin Strategies for Swedish Industrial Resilience Under Armed Conflict

Key Points

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Three Architectures, Three Outcomes: A Scenario Analysis of Digital Twin Strategies for Swedish Industrial Resilience Under Armed Conflict

Key Points

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Abstract

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