Development and Validation of a Predictive Growth Model for Total Aerobic Bacteria in Chicken Liver Under Various Storage Temperatures

This study aims to develop and evaluate microbial growth prediction models for total aerobic bacteria in chicken liver stored under various temperature conditions (4, 15, 25, and 30°C). To develop the primary growth models, the Baranyi and Gompertz models were applied to the observed data and compared. The performance of these models was assessed by calculating the coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), bias factor (Bf), and accuracy factor (Af). The results indicated that the Gompertz model provided a statistically superior fit compared to the Baranyi model. Consequently, a secondary model was developed using an Excel spreadsheet based on the parameters of the Gompertz model. The secondary model for the maximum growth rate showed an exponential increase with rising temperatures, while the lag phase duration exhibited a logarithmic decrease. In the fitness evaluation of the secondary model using temperature conditions not included in the initial model development, the RMSE was close to 0, and both Bf and Af were close to 1, demonstrating the high reliability of the predictive model. However, as this study focused on developing models under isothermal conditions, further research is necessary to develop and validate dynamic temperature prediction models for the growth of total aerobic bacteria in chicken liver.