Key Points
- To disentangle the relative contributions of population growth, population aging, and epidemiologic disease changes on trends in global cardiovascular mortality between 1990 and 2013.
- Analyzed mortality data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 across 188 countries grouped into 21 regions from 1990 to 2013.
- Constructed three counterfactual scenarios to isolate the effects of population growth, population growth plus aging, and epidemiologic shifts.
- Evaluated secular mortality trends and assessed correlations with national changes in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.
- Global cardiovascular deaths rose by 41% between 1990 and 2013 despite a 39% reduction in age-specific death rates, driven by a 55% increase from aging and a 25% increase from population growth.
- Central Europe and Western Europe were the only world regions where the total annual number of cardiovascular deaths declined.
- Changes in GDP per capita correlated weakly with changes in age-specific death rates only in upper-middle-income countries, showing no significant correlation in other income brackets.
Structured PICO
PPopulationGlobal population across 188 countries grouped into 21 world regions
OOutcomeGlobal deaths from cardiovascular disease and age-specific death rateshard clinical
Population aging and growth have driven a 41% increase in global cardiovascular deaths from 1990 to 2013, offsetting the 39% decrease in age-specific death rates in most regions.