The formation of approaches to assessing consumer demand in the Central Federal District based on leading indicators

One of the key macroeconomic indicators that determines the state of the Russian economy and ensures its growth is consumer demand. However, for the development and implementation of effective economic policies, including monetary policy, it is not enough to only monitor the dynamics of household consumption. It is important to timely identify trends and forecast consumer activity, which makes the identification of leading indicators that quickly assess consumption dynamics before the official publication of data by Rosstat especially relevant. At the same time, it should be noted that due to geographical and socio-economic peculiarities, each federal district contributes differently to overall Russian consumption. The aim of the study is to develop a system of indicators that possess leading properties and quickly evaluate the dynamics of consumer demand based on open data for subsequent use in forecasting models. The object of the study is the Central Federal District of Russia, while the subject is the indicators characterizing consumer demand in the macroregion. Traditional general scientific methods were used in the work, including deduction, systematization, and analysis, including correlation analysis. The authors examined the approaches of Russian and foreign researchers to the selection of consumer demand indicators, as well as the leading indicators used for analyzing and forecasting its dynamics. Sources of information about household consumption indicators in the Central Federal District (CFD) and in Russia as a whole, available in the public domain, were investigated and characterized considering their leading properties. As a result of the conducted study, a system of consumer demand indicators in the CFD was formed, which have a high degree of correlation with both the consumption index and with each other, and possess leading properties. The practical significance lies in the possibility of using the developed system of indicators to build forecasting models of consumer demand in macroregions, as well as in implementing monetary policy to assess the impact of the Bank of Russia's decisions on current and future trends in consumption dynamics. The results of the study contribute to economic theory by systematizing and expanding approaches to assessing consumer demand based on leading indicators.