The relationship between changes in prescription drug sales and changes in mortality and hospital utilization in Denmark, 2005-2019.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between changes in prescription drug sales and changes in mortality and hospital utilization in Denmark during the period 2005-2019. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyze the correlation across diseases between changes in sales of drugs used to treat the disease and changes in mortality or hospital utilization from that disease. Two attributes of the drugs used to treat a disease sold each year are constructed and analyzed. The first is the number of drugs sold; the second is the fraction of drugs that were first sold after 1997 (post-1997). RESULTS: The number of years of life lost before ages 85, 75 and 65 and the number of hospital days due to a disease is significantly inversely related to the share of post-1997 drugs used to treat the disease that were sold in previous years. CONCLUSION: Assuming that the mortality and hospital utilization changes were caused by the changes in prescription drug sales, the 13% estimated reduction in 2016 inpatient curative care expenditure due to the 2002-2013 increase in the share of post-1997 drugs is 2.5 times as large as 2016 expenditure on prescribed medicines first sold after 1997.