Seismic Hazard Area Prediction Based on Slip and Locking Rates of Active Faults in Northern Ningxia, China

This research employs the ITRF2014 framework to conduct an analysis of Eurasian GNSS data, thereby acquiring the recent velocity and strain rate fields in the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia border region, as well as in the Yinchuan and Lingwu regions of western China. It also provides in-depth insights into the relative movements, slip rates, and locking positions of active faults in these areas. Based on the elastic dislocation theory, a constraint model is constructed to perform numerical simulations of active faults. This enables the inversion of strike–slip, dip–slip, and slip deficit rates, along with the locking degree. Fault lockings are identified at the southern extremities of the northern and southern segments of the Niushoushan–Luoshan fault, the western ends of the Xiangshan–Tianjingshan fault zone, and the eastern segment of the Gancanling Fault. In Yinchuan, local locking is detected below 15 km along the southern part of the Helan Mountain eastern fault. The Bayannula Mountain Fault exhibits an uneven locking distribution, while the locking degree of the western margin fault of Zhuozi Mountain increases from the southwest to the northeast, with the fault being locked in the Etuoke Banner section.