National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2026.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2026 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2026 were reviewed-including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, endocrine drugs, generics, specialty drugs, and vaccines. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates for growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2026 were made based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2025, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 12. 7% compared to 2024, for a total of 915. 2 billion. Utilization (a 9. 3% increase) drove this increase, while growth due to new drugs (0. 9%) and price increases (1. 2%) had a modest impact. Tirzepatide was the new top drug in 2025, followed by semaglutide and apixiban. Drug expenditures were 42. 9 billion (a 9. 6% increase) and 190. 5 billion (a 19. 0% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and in clinics, respectively. In clinics, volume drove drug expense growth, contributing with a 13. 6% increase, while price and new drugs each contributed with a 2. 7% increase. In nonfederal hospitals, expenditure growth was driven by increases in volume (4. 6%), new products (3. 7%), and prices (1. 5%). Several new drugs that will influence spending are expected to be approved in 2026. Specialty, endocrine, and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures. CONCLUSION: For 2026, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 10. 0% to 12. 0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 14. 0%-16. 0% and 4. 0%-6. 0%, respectively, compared to 2025. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.