Navigating Policy, Technology, and Sustainability Uncertainties in Nigeria's Hydrogen Infrastructure and Trade

The global transition toward a low-carbon economy has elevated hydrogen as a key energy carrier capable of supporting deep decarbonization across multiple sectors. For Nigeria, abundant natural gas reserves, vast solar resources, and an existing energy infrastructure present a strategic opportunity to become a leading hub in Africa’s emerging hydrogen economy. This study develops a scenario-based framework to examine uncertainties and opportunities associated with hydrogen infrastructure development and international trade in Nigeria, aligning with national energy transition objectives and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. A mixed-methods approach combining stakeholder insights and an extensive literature review is employed to evaluate three hydrogen production pathways: green hydrogen derived from renewable energy, blue hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon capture, and grey hydrogen generated through conventional fossil-fuel processes. Each pathway presents distinct trade-offs in terms of cost, emissions, and infrastructure requirements. Key drivers—technological innovation, supportive policy frameworks, and infrastructure investment—are analyzed using an impact-uncertainty matrix to construct four plausible future scenarios: Hydrogen Leap, Policy-Led Delay, Tech-Driven Push, and Business as Usual. These scenarios assess Nigeria’s capacity to develop export-oriented hydrogen supply chains targeting markets in Europe, Asia, and West Africa, while considering regional demand, infrastructure readiness, and geopolitical dynamics. A complementary SWOT analysis identifies critical strengths, including significant gas reserves and renewable potential, alongside challenges such as financing constraints and regulatory uncertainties. The findings indicate that a phased transition strategy offers the most viable pathway, with blue hydrogen serving as a transitional solution that leverages existing gas infrastructure, followed by a gradual scale-up of green hydrogen as renewable energy costs decline. Achieving this transition will require coherent policies, strong public–private partnerships, and enhanced international collaboration. The study provides strategic recommendations for policymakers and investors aimed at positioning Nigeria as a competitive participant in the global hydrogen market while advancing sustainable energy development