Does stage 1 hypertension increase the 10-year and lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease compared to normal blood pressure?
Stage 1 hypertension significantly increases both 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk, with progression to stage 2 further amplifying this risk.
Background The 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk in the population with stage 1 hypertension and the effects of recovery from and progression of stage 1 hypertension remain undetermined. Methods and Results This prospective cohort study included 96 268 individuals with blood pressure measurements obtained in 2006 and again in 2010. The 10-year cardiovascular disease risk was estimated using the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, and the lifetime risk was calculated using a modified survival analysis that accounted for the competing risk of death. Stage 1 hypertension was detected in 30.83% of the cohort. The 10-year cardiovascular disease risk was 2.80%, and the lifetime risk was 16.61%. Compared with the normal blood pressure group, the stage 1 hypertension group had a 35% higher 10-year risk (hazard ratio HR, 1.35 95% CI, 1.19-1.52) and a 36% higher lifetime risk (HR, 1.36 95% CI, 1.25-1.49). By 2010, 12.57% of the participants with stage 1 hypertension had progressed to stage 2, with a significant 156% increase in 10-year risk (HR, 2.56 95% CI, 2.11-3.11) and an increased lifetime risk of 129% (HR, 2.29 95% CI, 1.89-2.77). There was no appreciable change in risk in those with stage 1 hypertension whose blood pressure returned to the normal-elevated range. Conclusions Stage 1 hypertension was associated with a significant increase in 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk. Progression to stage 2 hypertension was associated with a marked increase in lifetime risk. The current guidelines require revision to promote early detection and appropriate management of blood pressure.
Peng et al. (Tue,) studied this question.