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This paper aims to analyze the rates of upward and downward occupational mobility in the U.S. from 2018 to 2024.

What Goes Up May Come Down: Trends in the Upward and Downward Occupational Mobility of U.S. Workers

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Estimates upward and downward occupational mobility in U.S. workers, indicating trends and implications for job quality.

This paper aims to analyze the rates of upward and downward occupational mobility in the U.S. from 2018 to 2024.
Estimated annual mobility rates from 2011 onward, focusing on 2018-2024.
Utilized multinomial logit regressions to link individual characteristics to mobility outcomes.
Examined transitions based on worker quality categories.
Only 6.6% of workers in lowest-quality occupations achieved upward mobility to higher-quality jobs.
Conversely, 8.0% of workers in middle-quality jobs fell into lower-quality positions.
Increased upward mobility is noted after 2019, but overall change from 2018 to 2024 remained minimal.

Ruder et al. (2026) studied this question.

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