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May 3, 2026Open Access

Active Metastability in Political Polarization: Out-of-Sample RCR Validation (1994–2024) and Forward Projection to 2028

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Authors

JGJustin D. Gallant

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Overview

Randomized trial shows persistent political polarization trends in US electorate, suggesting institutional dynamics matter.

Key Points

  • This research examines how minority political views persist in a polarized electorate and seeks to explain this phenomenon.
  • Applied the Recursion-Collapse-Recombination (RCR) framework to analyze political opinions.
  • Utilized RCR Model 2 for predictions on political polarization from 1994 to 2024, testing against social science models.
  • Conducted global sensitivity analysis to identify key factors influencing polarization variance.
  • RCR Model 2 predicts a bimodal distribution for 2024 with a raw bimodality index error of 0.117, significantly lower than competing models.
  • The global collapse strength parameter χ is identified as a major factor affecting polarization variance (S₁ = 0.29, 95% CI [0.16, 0.45]).
  • Forward projection indicates sustained bimodality persistence above BI = 0.5 through the 2028 election cycles, with a volatility spike at each election event.

Cite This Study

Justin D. Gallant (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69f6e67c8071d4f1bdfc71dchttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19937756
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