Climate Change Alters Elevational Distribution Patterns of Cormus domestica Habitat

(L.) in Italy under current and future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), specifically focusing on the species' elevational shifts under future climate change. Our models project a considerable loss of habitat suitability over time (32%-68% by 2100). Annual mean temperature is the primary limiting variable, with the margin of the optimal temperature range at about 12°C. We found that climate change will alter the spatial configuration of suitable areas, with newly gained habitats always at higher elevations than lost ones. This result implies a trend of suitable areas shifting toward higher elevations, but in a way that cannot compensate for habitat loss. Our results point to the urgent need to strengthen conservation efforts aimed at improving the climate resilience of low-elevation species.