Population size estimation when multiple samples carrying the risk of misidentiﬁcation are taken within the same capture occasion from the same individual

April 29, 2026Peer Community JournalOpen Access

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Key Points

This research aims to improve population size estimates in capture-recapture studies by addressing the issue of misidentification due to multiple samples from the same individual.
Developed a Poisson distribution approach to extend the latent multinomial model for repeated sampling from individuals.
Conducted simulations to evaluate the performance of the new model.
Applied the Poisson model to DNA samples from Eurasian otters as a practical illustration.
The new model yielded unbiased estimates of population size even with multiple samples per individual.
Simulations showed improved accuracy compared to traditional models that assumed single sampling.
Population estimates were validated using real data from faecal samples of Eurasian otters.

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Shows unbiased population estimates using a new Poisson model in capture-recapture, highlighting its effectiveness for monitoring programs.

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Fraysse et al. (2026) studied this question.

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