Changes in the risk of severe material and social deprivation in Poland in the crisis period after 2019

Aim: The aim of the paper was to assess the pure influence of the most fundamental socio-economic and socio-demographic factors on severe material and social deprivation (SMSD) in Poland, identify population groups at risk of SMSD and compare the results between 2019 and 2022. Methodology: The research was based on binomial logit models, associated marginal means and their estimation and contrast analysis. Results: The paper revealed that, compared to 2019, the risk groups for SMSD in Poland did not change in 2022. However, the threat of SMSD significantly increased for the most vulnerable groups (unemployed, disabled, low-educated persons, persons with poor health, unmarried persons). If a person belonged to multiple risk groups according to various relevant factors, a negative synergistic effect was observed in both years, with this effect being much greater in 2022. Implications and recommendations: The results suggest that the recent crises (health, energy, inflation) in the early 2020s have caused a significant increase in the probability of SMSD for risk groups in the Polish population. Further research will be needed to confirm the causality between the increased risk of SMSD and the crises. Originality/value: The use of marginal means analysis and contrast analysis in the field of poverty and social exclusion is original. Through these sophisticated statistical procedures, the paper provides an in-depth analysis of the differences in the probability of SMSD between different categories of relevant factors during the years considered.