Evaluating a GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Framework for Eutrophication Susceptibility in Lough Tay, Ireland

Freshwater ecosystems are increasingly threatened by eutrophication and other anthropogenic and climate-driven pressures that undermine ecological functioning and biodiversity. This study evaluates the transferability of a GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (GIS–MCDA) framework with Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP), originally developed for a shallow coastal lake, to a morphologically distinct deep upland lake (Lough Tay, Ireland). Monthly in situ measurements at a single monitoring point in 2024 were analysed together with meteorological variables using Spearman rank correlations. Because spatial interpolation of in-lake water quality parameters was not feasible, eutrophication susceptibility was mapped using four external spatial drivers: distance from water resources (River Cloghoge inflows), land-based nitrogen export potential, distance from environmental pollutants represented by the transportation network, and a wind exposure index derived from a DEM and wind-rose analysis. Criteria were standardized with fuzzy membership functions, weighted using F-AHP (consistency index 0.056), and aggregated using weighted linear combination at 25 m resolution. The resulting Eutrophication Susceptibility Index (ESI) ranged from 0.18 to 0.81, indicating generally moderate to good conditions, with higher ESI values concentrated in the northern lake sector near inflow zones. The results demonstrate that GIS–MCDA can be adapted to lakes with limited monitoring by relying on external drivers, providing a spatial proxy for susceptibility rather than measured trophic status.