Digital Twin-Based Assessment and Forecasting of Marine Plate Heat Exchanger Performance Under Variable Operating Conditions

This study develops a physics-informed digital twin framework for quasi-real-time assessment and forecasting of marine plate heat exchanger performance under variable environmental and operational conditions. Unlike conventional steady-state or purely data-driven approaches, the proposed framework integrates first-principles thermohydraulic modeling, an iterative successive-approximation solver, and continuous synchronization with operational ship data, enabling adaptive state estimation and degradation tracking. The methodology explicitly accounts for coupled thermal, hydraulic, and fouling processes, and incorporates uncertainty-aware validation under real ship operating conditions. A case study based on a central cooling system of a cargo vessel demonstrates that seawater temperature variations of 3–4 K can induce nonlinear system responses, including up to a fourfold increase in coolant demand, a 10–15% reduction in heat-transfer efficiency, and a 15–25% rise in hydraulic losses. A threshold operating regime is identified, characterized by rapid degradation and fouling amplification. Comparative analysis against a static baseline model shows that the digital twin improves predictive accuracy and enables early detection of performance deterioration. Energy-efficiency assessment indicates that adaptive cooling control supported by the digital twin can reduce auxiliary power demand and contribute to fuel savings. The proposed framework provides a scalable foundation for predictive maintenance and intelligent thermal management in maritime systems.