Climate risk, rural land use efficiency, and agricultural economic resilience: evidence from city-level panel data in China

Against the backdrop of intensifying climate risk, this study investigates the impact of climate risk on agricultural economic resilience, with the aim of providing a scientific basis for constructing adaptive pathways toward agricultural and rural modernization under climate change. Drawing on panel data from 300 prefecture-level cities in China over the period 2007–2023, this paper empirically examines the effect of climate risk on agricultural economic resilience and further explores the moderating role of rural land use efficiency in this relationship. The empirical results reveal that: (1) Intensified climate risk significantly reduces agricultural economic resilience. This conclusion remains robust after addressing potential endogeneity concerns and conducting a series of robustness tests. (2) Mechanism analysis indicates that climate risks weaken agricultural economic resilience by inhibiting agricultural technological innovation and reducing the agricultural labor force. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of climate risk on agricultural economic resilience is more pronounced in China’s central region, major grain-producing areas, and regions with higher rural household incomes. (4) Further analysis demonstrates that improvements in rural land use efficiency can effectively mitigate the adverse impact of climate risk on agricultural economic resilience. Overall, against the backdrop of intensifying climate risks, this study provides solid theoretical support and empirical evidence for enhancing agricultural economic resilience.