Digital Finance and Inclusive Green Growth: Spatial Spillover Effects and Threshold Characteristics of Green Total Factor Productivity in Chinese Cities

Based on green growth theory and the theory of spatial externalities, this study systematically examines the mechanisms through which digital finance influences inclusive green growth, as well as the spatial characteristics and nonlinear patterns of urban green total factor productivity (GTFP). Using a sample of 285 prefecture-level cities in China, we constructed fixed effects and threshold effects models for empirical analysis. The results indicate that digital finance has a significant positive impact on inclusive green growth; there exists a dual threshold effect based on urban green total factor productivity (GTFP) and a significant positive spatial spillover effect between the two. Institutional environment, industrial upgrading, and digital infrastructure moderate these relationships, and heterogeneous differences exist across different regions. By integrating digital finance, inclusive green growth, and green total factor productivity into a unified analytical framework, this study provides empirical insights and policy recommendations for advancing urban sustainable development and regional collaborative governance.