Polycentric Spatial Structure, Urban Scale, and Land Prices: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities in China

In recent years, local governments in China have actively promoted new district development, encouraging a transition from monocentric to polycentric urban form. Whether and how this spatial restructuring is reflected in government-mediated land grant prices, however, remains unsettled. Using LandScan population grids and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), this paper measures the polycentric spatial structure of 283 prefecture-level cities in China. We merge this measure with city-level land transaction data to examine how polycentricity affects overall urban land prices as well as industrial, residential, and commercial land prices. The results show that a more polycentric urban structure significantly increases comprehensive land prices. Across land-use categories, the effect is smallest for industrial land and stronger for residential and commercial land. Further analysis shows that land-finance dependence moderates the effect of polycentric urban spatial structure on land prices, and this moderating effect differs across land-use types. In addition, the positive effect of polycentricity is weaker in larger cities. Spatial econometric estimates further suggest that local polycentricity raises land prices in neighboring cities, implying the presence of positive spillovers across urban areas. The paper contributes to the literature on urban spatial structure by linking intra-urban polycentricity to land price and by showing that these effects extend beyond city boundaries.