Assessing Power System Reliability Using Anomaly Detection in Daily Nighttime Light Data

Power-system reliability is crucial for sustainable development, but large-scale, long-term monitoring remains challenging. Existing nighttime light (NTL)-based outage detection methods often rely on fixed thresholds or prior information, limiting cross-regional application. To address this, we develop an adaptive thresholding framework using daily NASA Black Marble data. Observations are grouped by view angle to mitigate radiometric instability, and a per-pixel dynamic baseline is constructed from high-radiance statistics, enabling robust anomaly detection without prior outage timing. From the detected anomalies, we formulate a population-weighted NTL power reliability index (NTPRI) to quantify regional electricity service reliability. Validation across six diverse outage events yields an F1 score of 0.807. National-scale analysis shows NTPRI correlates significantly with the World Bank’s System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI). The derived Light Anomaly Rate (LAR) further supports pixel-level frequency analysis. Together, this framework provides a transferable remote-sensing tool for large-scale power-reliability assessment in data-scarce regions, supporting disaster impact evaluation and energy vulnerability analysis.