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May 6, 2026European Journal of EpidemiologyOpen Access

Forecast of dementia prevalence in Germany and subnational regions until 2060 using microsimulation

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Authors

KSKatrin SchüsselWissenschaftliches Institut der AOKGBGabriela BrücknerWissenschaftliches Institut der AOKHSHelmut SchröderWissenschaftliches Institut der AOK

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Implication

Microsimulation projects dementia cases in Germany's aging population, indicating preventive measures could mitigate impacts.

Key Points

  • To project national and subnational dementia figures in Germany until 2060 under different scenarios.
  • Used microsimulation to analyze dementia and population figures at the county level in Germany.
  • The German MikroSim model was enhanced with dementia-specific data from health records since 2017-2019.
  • Scenarios modeled included increasing life expectancy and varying rates of dementia incidence.
  • Under increasing life expectancy, dementia cases are projected to rise from 1.4 million in 2018 to 2.1 million by 2060.
  • Dementia prevalence predicted to increase from 1.6% to 2.6% over the same period.
  • Preventive scenarios suggest cases between 1.3 and 1.5 million with prevalence lowering to 1.6-1.9%.

Cite This Study

Schüssel et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69fa8e6404f884e66b530adahttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-026-01392-4
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Also Consider

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