Exhaust Gas Temperature Prediction of a Marine Gas Turbine Engine Using a Thermodynamic Knowledge-Driven Graph Attention Network Model

The exhaust gas temperature (EGT) of the gas generator is a critical indicator for the health management system of a marine gas turbine engine. Therefore, EGT prediction can not only support predictive maintenance decision-making but also serves as a reliable virtual sensor for EGT measurement. However, the engine EGT exhibits strongly nonlinear coupling relationships with other gas path variables, which causes challenges for data-driven prediction. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are particularly effective in capturing the coupling relationships among gas path sensor variables. However, conventional static graph structures fail to characterize the varying coupling strengths under different operating conditions. In this study, a thermodynamic knowledge-driven graph attention network (TKD-GAT) method is proposed for accurate and robust EGT prediction. First, a physics-guided graph topology is constructed based on the gas turbine thermodynamic equations. Subsequently, a multi-head attention mechanism is introduced to generate edge weights that capture the varying thermodynamic coupling strengths under different operation conditions. The proposed model is evaluated on a real-world LM2500 gas turbine, which is widely used in modern propulsion systems of commercial and military ships. The ablation study confirms that the thermodynamic knowledge-driven graph topology and the attention mechanism-based edge weights are both necessary to enhance the EGT prediction performance. The TKD-GAT model shows the best performance with an RMSE of 0.446% and an R2 of 0.971 compared with state-of-the-art models. The paired t-test and effect size measurement (Cohen’s d) statistically confirm the significance of performance improvements. The statistical results from multiple independent experiments prove the stability of the TKD-GAT model. Additionally, the model achieves a competitive computational cost despite the integration of a physics-guided graph topology and attention mechanisms. Crucially, an interpretability analysis confirms that the learned attention weights adhere to thermodynamic principles under different operation conditions. The proposed TKD-GAT model provides an effective solution for EGT prediction in health management systems.