What question did this study set out to answer?

The research aims to examine the evolution of overtourism in Barcelona and identify causal mechanisms affecting it.

May 6, 2026

EXPRESS: Unpacking Overtourism in Barcelona (1986–2025): A Longitudinal Process-Tracing Analysis and the Cascade Amplification Framework

Key Points

The research aims to examine the evolution of overtourism in Barcelona and identify causal mechanisms affecting it.
Longitudinal process tracing utilized to analyze the timeline from 1986 to 2025.
Incorporated 45 evidentiary units and Bayesian updating for analysis.
Validated seven causal mechanisms through diagnostic tests.
Identified interactions leading to housing crises and cultural erosion.
Showed the influence of neoliberal urbanization on social conflict.
Proposed the Cascade Amplification Framework to address overtourism.

Abstract

This study employs longitudinal process tracing to examine overtourism in Barcelona (1986–2025), tracing its trajectory from an industrial port to global tourism hub. Drawing on 45 evidentiary units, Bayesian updating, and Collier’s (2011) diagnostic tests, we validate seven causal mechanisms: infrastructure lock-in, regulatory gaps, digital amplification, cultural commodification, resident resistance, governance fragmentation, and biopolitical erosion. These mechanisms interact through path-dependent feedback loops under neoliberal urbanization, generating housing crises, cultural erosion, and social conflict. Challenging linear destination life-cycle narratives, we propose the Cascade Amplification Framework, a five-layered model designed to mitigate overtourism and offer transferable insights for other urban tourism destinations facing similar pressures.

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