Beyond Demographic Congruence: Examining Policy Belief and Behavior Congruence in Public Management Using Distributional Methods

Bureaucrats have increasingly assumed a central role in policymaking, heightening expectations that they respond to public preferences. While research in public administration has often focused on demographic congruence between bureaucrats and the public, less attention has been paid to whether they share substantive policy preferences and attitudes. This study addresses this gap by examining issue-specific congruence in the context of emergency information dissemination. Using matched survey data from three Southeastern U.S. states, we find that emergency managers frequently prioritize channels that do not reflect public preferences. Tenure in emergency management, rather than formal education, more reliably predicts accurate perceptions. Additionally, lower-level managers demonstrate greater alignment with public attitudes compared to directors. These results underscore the need to reassess training and communication strategies to enhance responsiveness and build public trust in crisis communication.