Land subsidence dynamics in the Mekong Delta: Insights from local high-resolution geomechanical parameterization, numerical modelling, and geodetic observations

, depending on the number of implemented failures. While well-casing failures are known consequences of land subsidence, the hypothesis-driven exploratory simulations employed here indicate that such damage may in turn accelerate subsidence by facilitating subsurface drainage pathways and local head equilibration between aquitards and tapped aquifers. This suggests that well-casing failures could contribute to heterogeneous and locally extreme subsidence dynamics. The results reveal significant delays in subsidence due to past groundwater depletion at the investigated site, underscoring the need for proactive water management strategies in the VMD, supported by comprehensive land subsidence modelling. The insights derived from this localized high-resolution analysis suggest that effective management will require preventing shallow aquifer depletion to avoid triggering the Holocene's pronounced, yet largely inactivated subsidence potential.