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May 7, 2026Political AnalysisOpen Access

Democracy Manifest or Democracy Latent? A Unified Framework for Identifying Regime Types and Transitions

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Authors

OOOMER FARUK ORSUNNew York UniversityMBMuhammet A. BasNew York University

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Implication

This framework identifies regime transitions and types using Monte Carlo simulations, implying measurement uncertainty influences outcomes.

Key Points

  • To introduce a framework for identifying regime types and transitions in political research.
  • Introduced the Unified Transitions and Stability (UNITAS) framework.
  • Combined information from various regime indicators for probabilistic analysis.
  • Demonstrated the framework's properties through Monte Carlo simulations.
  • Confirmed stable semi-democracies are not conflict-prone.
  • Found autocratization linked to higher civil war risk.
  • Showed democratization does not increase civil war risk.

Cite This Study

ORSUN et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69fbe357164b5133a91a2928https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2026.10042
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