From plant optimization to economy-wide impacts: A techno-economic and environmentally extended input-output framework for green hydrogen deployment in cement

As the U.S. accelerates industrial decarbonization, understanding the system-wide implications of transitioning hard-to-abate sectors like cement manufacturing is essential. This study presents an integrated techno-economic and Environmentally Extended Input-Output (EEIO) assessment of on-site green hydrogen for the U.S. cement industry. We develop a novel plant-to-economy framework that translates optimized capital expenditures for PV, electrolyzer, and energy storage into national final demand vectors, allowing for a detailed assessment of supply chain propagation, value-added creation, and embodied emissions. By quantifying induced economic and environmental effects, the analysis reveals significant contributions to the national economy, generating over $825 million in output and 4500 jobs at 30% substitution. Results reveal that while the on-site system is economically productive and its up-front 'carbon debt' is repaid within months, it also triggers a significant re-materialization of the economy and presents non-linear cost challenges. The analysis highlights an abatement cost peaking at $461/tCO 2 , a 100-fold increase in hydrogen storage requirements, and a structural shift of the environmental burden to upstream manufacturing and mineral extraction. Although applied to a representative cement plant, the proposed framework is designed to be transferable to other capital-intensive, hard-to-abate sectors where decarbonization planning requires integrated system-level insights. The findings offer policy-relevant guidance for aligning industrial decarbonization strategies with national economic resilience and long-term sustainability goals.