What question did this study set out to answer?

To evaluate the effect of stalling life expectancy and varying scenarios of disability progression on projected social care expenditure and healthy, independent life expectancy in England through 2038.

July 1, 2022Age and AgeingOpen Access

Projections of dependency and associated social care expenditure for the older population in England to 2038: effect of varying disability progression

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Authors

AKAndrew Kingston RWRaphael Wittenberg BHBo Hu

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Overview

Microsimulation study projects increased social care expenditure in older adults, indicating that slowing disability progression could substantially mitigate future costs.

Key Points

To evaluate the effect of stalling life expectancy and varying scenarios of disability progression on projected social care expenditure and healthy, independent life expectancy in England through 2038.
Linked two projection frameworks: the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) microsimulation model and the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre long-term care projections model using 2018-based population data.
Analyzed a representative sample of approximately 303,589 individuals aged 35 and older (a 1% sample of England's 2014 population) derived from three longitudinal ageing studies across five disability progression and recovery scenarios.
Total social care expenditure was projected to rise by 94.1% between 2018 and 2038, reaching 1.25% of gross domestic product.
Independent life expectancy at age 65 was projected to increase by 14.7% (range 11.3–16.5%) in men, but only by 4.7% (range 3.2–5.8%) in women.
A 10% reduction in disability progression combined with increased recovery yielded the lowest expenditure growth and enabled both men and women to surpass the targeted 8% gain in independent life expectancy.

Cite This Study

Kingston et al. (2022) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69fc2da257c27e0ed678cf5c https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afac158

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July 1, 2022Age and AgeingOpen Access

Projections of dependency and associated social care expenditure for the older population in England to 2038: effect of varying disability progression

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

AKAndrew Kingston RWRaphael Wittenberg BHBo Hu

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Microsimulation study projects increased social care expenditure in older adults, indicating that slowing disability progression could substantially mitigate future costs.

Key Points

To evaluate the effect of stalling life expectancy and varying scenarios of disability progression on projected social care expenditure and healthy, independent life expectancy in England through 2038.
Linked two projection frameworks: the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) microsimulation model and the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre long-term care projections model using 2018-based population data.
Analyzed a representative sample of approximately 303,589 individuals aged 35 and older (a 1% sample of England's 2014 population) derived from three longitudinal ageing studies across five disability progression and recovery scenarios.
Total social care expenditure was projected to rise by 94.1% between 2018 and 2038, reaching 1.25% of gross domestic product.
Independent life expectancy at age 65 was projected to increase by 14.7% (range 11.3–16.5%) in men, but only by 4.7% (range 3.2–5.8%) in women.
A 10% reduction in disability progression combined with increased recovery yielded the lowest expenditure growth and enabled both men and women to surpass the targeted 8% gain in independent life expectancy.

Cite This Study

Kingston et al. (2022) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69fc2da257c27e0ed678cf5c https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afac158

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