The role of nudges in reducing exponential growth bias and increasing safety compliance

Exponential growth bias (EGB), the tendency to underestimate exponential trends, has been linked to lower compliance with safety guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to use an online experiment with 631 Indian participants to evaluate the effectiveness of three behaviorally informed nudges: numerical feedback, graphical feedback, and forecast range prompts. While prior research shows that increasing the frequency of forecasting modestly reduces EGB, the authors find that combining this approach with feedback and forecast-range-based interventions eliminates the bias entirely. These reductions are associated with significant improvements in self-reported compliance and shifts in the perceived effectiveness of government crisis management, particularly concerning the central government. The results highlight the potential of low-cost, behaviorally informed interventions to strengthen public health communication and improve behavioral responses during health emergencies.