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This study investigates how the selection of reference series impacts the accuracy of celestial pole offset predictions.

The impact of reference series selection when evaluating celestial pole offset predictions

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Randomized trial reveals how reference series choice affects celestial pole offset forecast accuracy, indicating need for multi-reference evaluation.

This study investigates how the selection of reference series impacts the accuracy of celestial pole offset predictions.
Re-evaluated celestial pole offset predictions from the 2nd EOP PCC against nine reference solutions.
Analyzed variations in mean absolute error between different reference series.
Compared predictions using International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service and International VLBI Service references.
Mean absolute error for predictions could vary by up to 0.076 mas for dX and 0.062 mas for dY based on the reference series used.
Differences in mean absolute error often exceeded the errors of the forecasts themselves.
Highlights the need for a multi-reference framework to improve objectivity in forecast evaluations.

Partyka et al. (2026) studied this question.

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Randomized trial reveals how reference series choice affects celestial pole offset forecast accuracy, indicating need for multi-reference evaluation.