Analysing the Impact of Survivorship Bias on Border Security Effectiveness

This paper aims to investigate the impact of survivorship bias – a cognitive bias which highlights only successful outcomes while ignoring failures – on the effectiveness of border security operations. It follows a qualitative approach using semi-structured interviews with subject matter experts from law enforcement, migration, and the defence industry, primarily based in Türkiye. It uncovers how survivorship bias can cause misleading border security performance metrics. The study also shows that survivorship bias can lead to the underestimation of border security risks, faulty resource allocation, neglect of adaptive tactics, and distorted public perception. The study proposes a border security event evaluation framework, integrating both successful and unsuccessful cases.