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May 8, 2026SystemsOpen Access

Friend-Shoring Versus Near-Shoring: A Counterfactual Network Analysis of Differential Impacts on China’s Position in Global Value Chains

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Authors

LCLizhuo CuiJFJiarui FengYZY Zhang

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Overview

Empirical evaluation reveals friend-shoring significantly impacts China’s industries, suggesting risks and trade shifts.

Key Points

  • This study evaluates how U.S. friend-shoring and near-shoring strategies impact China's position in global value chains.
  • Used the Asian Development Bank Multi-Regional Input-Output database to model trade networks
  • Applied the X-index Filtering Algorithm to identify core trade relationships
  • Compared centrality measures between original and counterfactual scenarios to assess policy impacts.
  • Friend-shoring creates a significant squeeze effect on China's resource-intensive industries, increasing decoupling risks.
  • Near-shoring has limited immediate impact as Chinese firms use overseas investments to adapt to trade diversions.
  • Scenario analysis indicates trade remedies may help emerging hubs like Vietnam and Mexico but reduce global production efficiency.

Cite This Study

Cui et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69fd7fa1bfa21ec5bbf0826chttps://doi.org/10.3390/systems14050512
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1Near-shoring Versus Friend-shoring: CGE Analysis of Regional Blocs and Geopolitical Realignment2026
  2. 2Geopolitics, trade wars, and the rise of friendshoring: Evidence from APEC economies2026 · 2 citations
  3. 3Economic costs of friendshoring2024 · 71 citations
  4. 4How are geopolitical tensions driving a shift from liberal globalization to friendshoring?2026
  5. 5Article: Reshaping Global Supply Chain and India: A Quest for Friend-Shoring and On-Shoring2024